In this post we'll take it a step further and look at the actual playoff bleed between conferences, as well as the odds of each team reaching the playoffs under the new conference system.
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| The realignment map. Image by Tom Fulery |
In practice
In theory, it would be true that the two 8 team conferences, Western and Central would bleed playoff spots to the two 7 team conferences, Eastern and Atlantic. However, in practice the actual bleed of playoff spots is dependent on the relative strength of the conferences, not the number of teams in those conferences.
One way to figure out the strength of the conferences is to use the number of times teams in a conference reached the playoffs the last 10 seasons (the time that we have had the current divisions). So we add up the playoff appearances of teams in each of the new conferences, generating the table below. What does this data tell us?
| Conference | Playoff spots the last 10 seasons |
Playoff spots the last 5 seasons |
Playoff bleed based on the last 10 seasons |
Playoff bleed based on the last 5 seasons |
Weighted average bleed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlantic | 43 (-3) | 23 (-3) | -0.3 | -0.6 | -0.45 |
| Eastern | 36 (+4) | 16 (+4) | +0.4 | +0.8 | +0.6 |
| Central | 36 (+4) | 19 (+1) | +0.4 | +0.2 | +0.3 |
| Western | 45 (-5) | 22 (-2) | -0.5 | -0.4 | -0.45 |
Well, let's look at the Atlantic and Eastern conferences. Teams from the Atlantic conference totalled 43 playoff spots the last 10 seasons, 23 in the last 5. Teams from the Eastern conference totalled just 36 playoff spots the last 10 seasons, 16 in the last 5. With the new system both conferences will receive 40 playoff spots the next 10 seasons, 20 over the next 5. So the Atlantic conference will get 3 less than they got under the divisional system, while the Eastern conference will get 4 more than they managed under the divisional system. This will lead to a "bleed" of playoff spots from the Atlantic conference to the Eastern conference. The strength of this bleed is different depending on the time scale we look at (-3/10 and +4/10 over the last 10 seasons, or -3/5 and +4/5 over the last 5 seasons), but it averages to a bleed of 0.45 playoff spots per year from the Atlantic, while the Eastern will gain 0.6 playoff spots per year. The additional 0.15 is a bleed from the old western conference, which is caused by Atlanta's move to Winnipeg.
The old western conferences breaks up into the Central and Western conferences, and the story is repeated here, with an average bleed of -0.45 from the Western conference, with a gain of +0.3 for the Central conference. Winnipeg's move "steals" some of the gain that the Central conference would have gotten, reducing it by the same gain of 0.15 spots per year we saw above for the Eastern conference.
The weighted average is the average of the bleed based on the last 10 and the last 5 seasons. In other words, the last 5 seasons are counted twice and deemed more important than the 5 seasons preceding them.
So it turns out that it isn't the two 7 team conferences that get the sweet deal out of this realignment, it is the Eastern and Central conferences, because they are the "weaker" conferences based on the playoff records of the teams within those two conferences.
What about my team?
Well, we now know that if your team is in the Eastern or Central conference, they you're in luck. On average, you will see your favourite team more often then you would based on their performance under the old divisional system. If your team is in the Atlantic or Western conference, then tough luck, the odds of your team reaching the playoffs have just gone down, since it resides in a strong conference.
But what are the actual odds of a given team reaching the playoffs after the realignment? It depends on the strength of that team relative to the strength of the conference they are in. Luckily we already have all the data we need to figure this out, namely the number of playoff appearances for each team the last 10 seasons.
Let's look at Washington and Tampa Bay and see how the math works out.
Washington has 6 playoff appearances the last 10 seasons, 4 of them in the last 5 seasons. Based on that Washington should have a 60% or 80% chance of reaching the playoffs, depending on whether you look at the last 10 seasons, or limit it to the last 5 seasons. However, Washington is in the strong Atlantic conference with teams totalling 43 playoff appearances the last 10 seasons, 23 the last 5 seasons. Because there are more than 40 and 20 appearances your odds will be reduced from the expected 60% or 80%. The easiest way to visualise this is that 43 teams will now be squeezed into 40 spots, or 23 teams squeezed into 20 spots. This means that Washington's odds for the 2012-13 season are reduced from 60% to 56% (60*40/43=56) based on the last 10 seasons, or reduced from 80% to 70% (80*20/23=70) based on the last 5 seasons. This means a reduction by 4% or 10% depending on the time scale, as seen below.
Tampa Bay finds itself in the less competitive Eastern conference, and has 5 playoff appearances the last 10 seasons, 2 of them in the last 5 seasons. So Tampa Bay should have a 50% or 40% chance of reaching the playoffs. However, because the Eastern conference only totals 36 playoff spots the last 10 seasons, 16 in the last 5, we will see an increase in Tampa Bay's odds. Where we used to have 36 teams in the playoffs we will now get 40, where we used to have 16 we will now get 20, and this surplus of playoff spots accounts for the increasing odds. For the 2012-13 season Tampa Bay's odds are increased from 50% to 56% (50*40/36=56) based on the last 10 seasons, or increased from 40% to 50% (40*20/16=50) based on the last 5 seasons. This means an increase of 6% and 10% respectively, as seen below.
So browse the table below for the teams you are interested in, and comment if you have any questions.
The meaning of the table headers are as follows:
P10 = Playoff appearances the last 10 seasons.
P5 = Playoff appearances the last 5 seasons.
N%10 = Chance of making the playoffs with the new conference setup, based on the last 10 seasons.
N%5 = Chance of making the playoffs with the new conference setup, based on the last 5 seasons.
%C10 = Percentage points of change between the old divisional system and the new conference setup, based on the last 10 seasons.
%C5 = Percentage points of change between the old divisional system and the new conference setup, based on the last 5 seasons.
| Atlantic | P10 | P5 | N%10 | N%5 | %C10 | %C5 | Eastern | P10 | P5 | N%10 | N%5 | %C10 | %C5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carolina | 4 | 1 | 37% | 17% | -3% | -3% | Boston | 7 | 4 | 78% | 100% | +8% | +20% | |
| New Jersey | 9 | 4 | 84% | 70% | -6% | -10% | Buffalo | 5 | 3 | 56% | 75% | +6% | +15% | |
| NY Islanders | 4 | 1 | 37% | 17% | -3% | -3% | Florida | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
| NY Rangers | 5 | 4 | 47% | 70% | -3% | -10% | Montreal | 7 | 4 | 78% | 100% | +8% | +20% | |
| Philadelphia | 9 | 4 | 84% | 70% | -6% | -10% | Ottowa | 8 | 3 | 89% | 75% | +9% | +15% | |
| Pittsburgh | 6 | 5 | 56% | 87% | -4% | -13% | Tampa Bay | 5 | 2 | 56% | 50% | +6% | +10% | |
| Washington | 6 | 4 | 56% | 70% | -4% | -10% | Toronto | 4 | 0 | 44% | 0% | +4% | 0% | |
| SUM | 43 | 23 | SUM | 36 | 16 |
| Central | P10 | P5 | N%10 | N%5 | %C10 | %C5 | Western | P10 | P5 | N%10 | N%5 | %C10 | %C5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago | 4 | 3 | 46% | 64% | +6% | +4% | Anaheim | 6 | 4 | 53% | 73% | -7% | -7% | |
| Columbus | 1 | 1 | 12% | 21% | +2% | +1% | Calgary | 5 | 3 | 44% | 55% | -6% | -5% | |
| Dallas | 6 | 2 | 69% | 43% | +9% | +3% | Colorado | 7 | 2 | 62% | 36% | -8% | -4% | |
| Detroit | 10 | 5 | 100% | 100% | 0% | 0% | Edmonton | 3 | 0 | 27% | 0% | -3% | 0% | |
| Minnesota | 3 | 2 | 35% | 43% | +5% | +3% | Los Angeles | 4 | 2 | 36% | 36% | -4% | -4% | |
| Nashville | 6 | 4 | 69% | 86% | +9% | +6% | Phoenix | 3 | 2 | 27% | 36% | -3% | -4% | |
| Saint Louis | 5 | 1 | 58% | 21% | +8% | +1% | San Jose | 9 | 5 | 80% | 91% | -10% | -9% | |
| Winnipeg | 1 | 1 | 12% | 21% | +2% | +1% | Vancouver | 8 | 4 | 71% | 73% | -9% | -7% | |
| SUM | 36 | 19 | SUM | 45 | 22 |
So there you have it folks, the playoff chances of each team under the new conference system. This is all based on the past performance of the teams under the old divisional system, so we need to issue a disclaimer. One is that the game matrix will now change. That will influence the ability of teams in the same conference to collect points, since they play a lot of the games against their conference rivals.
One other note: We could have used more sensitive data to generate the tables above. When I get the time I intend to the position that each team finished the regular season in, rather then just a binary "did/did not qualify for the playoffs". That in turn will allow us to look at conference strength in a new light and hence the chances for each team in those conferences. The playoff bleed will stay the same however.
In the next post, Part 3, we'll discuss who the winners and losers are with the implementation of this realignment, and sum up with some final thoughts.
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